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[USD] University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment


The near-term prospects for consumer sentiment remain a virtual wild card though mixed conditions seen in recent weeks should provide maintained support for confidence. Accordingly, anticipating only modest upward pressure in the preliminary release, we expect the headline measure increase to around 99.0.
Alongside the uncertainty among the public over the path of economic growth seen for some time, UMICH consumer sentiment decreased in November (98.5, from 100.7). Accordingly, alongside the dampened headline result, survey readings show the consumer in a weaker situation (as seen via the economic conditions: 113.5 from 116.5), alongside less support from expectations (88.9, from 90.5). Meanwhile, inflation expectations saw mixed pressure with an increase in the 1-year measure (2.5%, from 2.4%) contrasted by a weaker reading on the 5-year time horizon (2.4%, from 2.5%).
Although consumer sentiment continues to rest on tenuous conditions (as seen by the volatility in recent months), we expect more recent improvement to be relatively maintained as we move further towards 2018 as employment conditions improve. Nevertheless, consumers continue to look for guidance, with the backdrop fear that the next jobs lost might be their own. Until these fears subside, there is little promise of consistent improvement on the consumption front, despite gains seen in recent months.



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