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[MKT] FX Strategy for European Session
[MKT] The FX market was quiet, as traders were wary of taking positions ahead of major events this week.
7/28/2014 5:44:55 AM
[MKT] News & Rumour from Asian Session
[MKT] Following are the key News & Rumour from Asian Session
7/28/2014 5:34:02 AM
[INT] US Treasury Strategy
[INT] June Durable goods orders non defense ex aircraft were up a solid 1.4%, but the shipments non defense ex aircraft, which are the concurrent measure more related to Q2 GDP accounting were unexpectedly down 1% (with downward revision to May) and so led some to revise downward their Q2 GDP estimate, due out in the week ahead. It appears that after the unexpected contraction in growth in the first quarter, the second quarter bounce back is going to initially appear somewhat moderate. As dealers and investors assess the attractiveness of the recently under performing short end as the auctions of 2yrs, 5yrs and 7yrs hit next week, the market is generally seeing the picture still mixed enough that it will not provoke any major changes to the FOMC statement on Wednesday, although any nuance will be scrutinized. Also impacting demand for the supply will be views on the monthly job report which will be due out Friday, August 1. The consensus expectation for July non farm payrolls is moderation to 230k vs the 288k in June, and with a steady unemployment rate of 6.1%. Something along these lines keeps the bond range trade in tact, but reaction will also be shaped by any changes to hourly earnings and the participation rate, factors the Fed will monitor carefully as they try to measure overall slack in the labor market. In the background, as the doves rule at the Fed and policy remains highly accommodative and patient, it is somewhat remarkable that payrolls rose as much as they did during the Q1 contraction in GDP and that all measures of employment have strengthened since, such as JOLTS (vacancies, quits, and hires), the NFIB hiring plans, Conference Board jobs hard to get, the unemployment rate, temporary help employment and the initial jobless claims series. What would the labor market do if growth picks up to 4% in Q3? Technically, in the September 10Yr contract, T-Notes likely choppy, T-Notes have turned heavy, but look for attempts to stabilize at 12430/12424 and rally. Back over 12510 should refocus on 12516 then 12524/12601. Under 12424, however, can threaten 12413 next.
7/28/2014 2:29:27 AM
[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates
[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates.
7/25/2014 8:17:31 PM
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The new FX and FI outlook for Q3 is now available. Key themes including
a further rerating of GBP in the coming months, as interest rate spreads cause
a further upleg. USD should be choppy on the majors, though into 2015 we still
forecast a major rerating. |
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IDEAglobal has published the 2014 Q2 FX Outlook|
USD bulls: IDEAglobal would argue that the change in the Fed balance sheet is more important for the USD than the outstanding size of the Fed balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that when the balance sheet expansion ebbed in 2011, the USD gained ground. This could be a function of Fed flows partially seeping abroad, but also that slower new flows reduce the increase in global risk taking. As the Fed tapers its bond purchases through 2014, we would expect this factor to gain momentum and help the USD rise....
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