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[MKT] FX market strategy for 13 Dec

[MKT] The USD index picked up on Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI release and FOMC meeting. (Please see below for our updated FX strategy.)
12/12/2017 5:37:08 PM

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[USD] US Preview: FOMC Statement

[USD] The FOMC monetary policy statement will be published Wednesday, 13 December at 14:00EST (19:00GMT), accompanied by updated economic projections and followed by a press conference with outgoing Fed Chair Yellen. Following the announcement of balance sheet unwinding at the September meeting, markets then began set sights on December as the next possible likely moment of action from the FOMC (having become increasingly concrete for quite some time). Should policymakers opt to inject greater caution in the outlook for inflation, we expect to see undermining effects on market expectations for expectations moving into 2018. However, if little different from recent history, we expect data dependence will continue as we move into the new year. On balance, we expect a more limited focus will be seen in the wake of the statement release, given the pending departure of Fed Chair Yellen (alongside leadership turnovers in the Vice Chair position and the eventual 2018 exit of New York Fed President Dudley).
12/12/2017 5:18:49 PM

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[GBP] Steady BoE policy awaited, minutes key...

[GBP] Like the market consensus, we expect this week's UK BoE MPC meeting to culminate in the decision maintain the official Bank Rate at 0.5%, with the programme of asset purchases also expected to remain paused at GBP435bn for Gilts and at GBP10bn for non-financial high investment grade corporate bonds. All three decisions are expected to be unanimous.
12/12/2017 4:52:37 PM

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[USD] US Preview: Consumer Price Index

[USD] The November Labor Department consumer price index report will be released Wednesday, 13 December at 08:30EST (13:30GMT). On balance, we expect the total CPI measure will come in +0.4% m/m (+2.2% y/y), versus the +0.1% m/m (+2.0% y/y) reading seen in October. This comes alongside an expected +0.2% m/m reading in the core-measure (+1.8% y/y) in November, versus the +0.2% m/m (+1.8% y/y) reading seen in October. On balance, we expect more upward pressure to be reflected in the core measure in the coming months (on a m/m basis), alongside upward pressure on the headline measure related to energy prices.
12/12/2017 4:14:08 PM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
  • Streamlined product structure for ease of use.
  • Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

Download the IDEAFX product guide here.

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