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[MKT] European summary updated 01/09/14
[MKT] European summary updated 01/09/14
9/1/2014 11:04:51 AM
[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe
[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe - please see below.
9/1/2014 10:50:50 AM
[EUR] Aug manufacturing sector PMI revised down a tad
[EUR] Eurozone Aug final manufacturing sector PMI is revised down slightly, to 50.7 from a flash print of 50.8, taking it further below its 51.8 final reading in Jul. The final reading of the manufacturing output sub-index is however revised up a smidgen, to 51.0, from a flash print of 50.9, but is still down on 52.7 in Jul and is at its lowest reading in 13 months. Heroically assuming no revisions to the Aug flash services sector PMI then (initially recorded at 53.5), the Aug composite PMI will probably be left unchanged at its preliminary reading of 52.8, which itself was down from 53.8 in Jul. Limited direct market impact is seen, with players more concerned about the implications of escalating military tensions in eastern Ukraine and indeed the n/t outlook for ECB monetary policy.
9/1/2014 10:15:37 AM
[GBP] Manufacturing activity slows more sharply
[GBP] The pace of UK manufacturing sector activity slows precipitously in Aug, with the headline PMI sliding sharply to 52.5 from a downwardly revised 54.8 in Jul (prev 55.4). The latest print, combined with the downward revision to July's reading are unequivocally bearish for GBP, especially when one considers that the PMI is hurtling down towards its l-r average of 51.5. This is made worse by the sharp dip in the new orders sub-index, to 52.9 from 56.8 in Jul, as this suggests that that outlook for activity and output in the s/t is not so favourable. This should add to expectations that the BoE interest rate normalisation process probably won't begin until Q1 2015.
9/1/2014 9:43:19 AM
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The new FX and FI outlook for Q3 is now available. Key themes including
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forecast a major rerating. |
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USD bulls: IDEAglobal would argue that the change in the Fed balance sheet is more important for the USD than the outstanding size of the Fed balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that when the balance sheet expansion ebbed in 2011, the USD gained ground. This could be a function of Fed flows partially seeping abroad, but also that slower new flows reduce the increase in global risk taking. As the Fed tapers its bond purchases through 2014, we would expect this factor to gain momentum and help the USD rise....
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