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[USD] U.S. Bond Strategy for May 25

[USD] Treasuries found upward pressure across much of the curve, alongside equity market weakness, as markets absorbed a mixed run of economic data and increased political tensions following US President Trump's decision to cancel the June summit with North Korea's Kim Jong-un, citing tremendous anger and hostility displayed in recent statements. Data aside, the decision to cancel the June summit is something that will likely magnify political rhetoric (and threats of nuclear destruction) in the week's to come, something that is not likely to ease with a promise of another future sit-down between the two leaders (particularly given how easily and quickly this one fell apart).
5/24/2018 7:29:22 PM

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[FRX] FX market strategy for 25 May

[FRX] The latest risk-off move carried on Thursday, to the benefit mainly of the JPY. (Please see below for our full, updated FX strategy.)
5/24/2018 4:47:28 PM

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[USD] US Preview: Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment

[USD] The University of Michigan final estimate of consumer sentiment for May will be released Friday, 25 May at 10:00EDT (14:00GMT). The preliminary May estimate of consumer sentiment held unchanged at 98.8, versus March. The near-term prospects for consumer sentiment remain a virtual wild card though mixed conditions seen in recent weeks should provide maintained support for confidence. Accordingly, anticipating little change in the final release, we expect the headline measure will hold steady around 98.8.
5/24/2018 4:11:19 PM

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[USD] US Preview: Durable Goods Orders

[USD] The April US Commerce Department durable goods orders report will be released on Friday, 25 May at 08:30EDT (12:30GMT). We expect a decrease in the overall measure of -1.0% m/m in April, versus the +2.6% m/m reading that occurred in March. This should come alongside an ex-transportation increase of +0.5% m/m in April, versus the +0.1% m/m reading that occurred in March. In terms of core capital goods orders (capital goods orders, non-defense, ex-aircraft), we expect an overall increase of +0.5% m/m in April, versus the -0.4% m/m reading seen in March. On balance, the economy continues to grow as we move into 2018 and broader improvement in purchasing activity should be reflected in durable goods orders data in the coming months. However, pulling back from the increase seen in March, we expect some downward pressure in April, yielding a -1.0% m/m decrease, with some risk to the downside.
5/24/2018 3:42:16 PM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
  • Streamlined product structure for ease of use.
  • Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

Download the IDEAFX product guide here.

IDEAglobal TV, Videos & Media

ECB QE will it work — Reuters Insider
European yields to rise — CNBC
Euro and the ECB Afermath — Reuters Insider
Correction continues in Europe — Reuters Insider
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US equity correction risk Q1 2015 — CNBC
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Top for GBP
US equity risks later in 2014 — CNBC
Easy ECB — Reuters Insider
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Pound tightening tantrum later in 2014 — Bloomberg TV
USD medium-term bulls — Reuters Insider
EUR/JPY to 136
How to Play GBP
More ECB easing — Reuters Insider
Expect USD strength in 2014 — Bloomberg TV
IDEAglobal 2014 Currency Preview
The Yen's Correction
USDJPY to Y110 — Reuters Insider
USDJPY best FX trade — Bloomberg
US 10yr yields to hit 3% — CNBC
Equities into 2014 — CNBC
Tapering isn't tightening, OK? — Reuters Insider
ECB Easing
Risk rally in November — Reuters Insider
Europe is not fixed — CNBC
1.40 EUR/USD
What forward guidance works best — CNBC


IDEAglobal products on Bloomberg
IDEAglobal products can now be accessed on Bloomberg in two ways:
  1. NH IDE. This will pull up all of IDEAglobal’s research in a newswire format, from which you can scroll down and click onto the analysis or strategy piece of interest. Additionally, based on your subscription you will also have access to IDEAglobal research within relevant Bloomberg news feeds.
  2. IDGL. This provides a menu for IDEAglobal’s products, arranged by their key sections: FastTrack, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Strategy. This then allows the user to drill down to specific articles on the markets covered by IDEAglobal. (See example here.)

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IDEAglobal launches an improved and enhanced version of Global Rates portfolio on Reuters

IDEAglobal Tops 1st Quarter Currency Survey

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