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[USD] Recap: Advance 3Q14 GDP Up +3.5%
[USD] Recap: The advance 3Q14 GDP reading increased +3.5%, versus the +4.6% reading seen in 2Q14, above market expectations for a +3.0% result. Personal consumption increased +1.8%, versus the +2.5% reading seen in 2Q14. Core PCE increased +1.4%, following the +2.0% increase seen in 2Q14. Residential investment increased +1.8% in 3Q14, versus the +8.8% seen in 2Q14. Exports pushed higher +7.8% in 3Q14, contrasting a -1.7% decrease from imports. According to the release, downward pressure from inventories took away -0.57% to the headline estimate, versus the +1.42% boost seen in 2Q14. IDEA: given the further gains seen in 3Q14, we expect 2014 GDP to average hold around +2.3%.
10/30/2014 12:47:45 PM
[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe
[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe - please see below.
10/30/2014 11:54:43 AM
[MKT] European summary updated 30/10/14
[MKT] European summary updated 30/10/14
10/30/2014 11:52:17 AM
[CNY] China: Rising risks of a systemic failure?
[CNY] China: As the activity in the property sector remains tepid, the risks of a systemic failure in the financial system remain significant. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the real estate companies in China have borrowed USD 57bn in the offshore bond markets and another USD 40bn in syndicated loans since 2011 and this has coincided with a slowdown in sales and fall in prices, raising fears of a financial system fallout from the housing market downturn.
10/30/2014 11:13:55 AM
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The new FX and FI outlook for Q3 is now available. Key themes including
a further rerating of GBP in the coming months, as interest rate spreads cause
a further upleg. USD should be choppy on the majors, though into 2015 we still
forecast a major rerating. |
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Q3 2014 FX/FI Webinar
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IDEAglobal has published the 2014 Q2 FX Outlook|
USD bulls: IDEAglobal would argue that the change in the Fed balance sheet is more important for the USD than the outstanding size of the Fed balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that when the balance sheet expansion ebbed in 2011, the USD gained ground. This could be a function of Fed flows partially seeping abroad, but also that slower new flows reduce the increase in global risk taking. As the Fed tapers its bond purchases through 2014, we would expect this factor to gain momentum and help the USD rise....
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