... from the IDEApro Suite [DEM] German Jan Ifo survey shows a rise in the headline business climate indicator to 108.3, as we expected, from an upwardly revised 107.3 in Dec (prev 107.2), - a stronger increase than the market's expectation of 107.5. This is consistent with the direction of the German ZEW current conditions sub-index for Jan, as well as the sharp rise in Germany's composite PMI indicator to 54.0, from 51.3 in Dec. At the margin this should be seen as supportive for EURUSD, but background worries about the rising risk of a Greek default should continue to limit the upside on the exchange rate. The survey itself offers a glimmer of hope that any downturn in the German economy should be mild, but does not detract from the view of another refi rate cut from the ECB in Mar, given the severely weak economic conditions in the Eurozone at large.
1/25/2012 11:25:09 AM
[INT] The FOMC press conference can help stabilise and boost the USD, as the Fed downplays QE3 prospects.
1/25/2012 10:13:59 AM
[INT] · The tempering of QE3 expectations in the US continues to gather pace, which could re-ignite the focus on a pause in Fed balance sheet expansion versus the rapid increase in the ECB's balance sheet. The next 3 points on EURUSD are more likely to come on the downside.
· Though sovereign credits are consolidating, the renewed stalling of Greek PSI talks only increases the risk of a CDS trigger and a wider shift in expectations on the risk of PSI's elsewhere.
1/25/2012 8:50:39 AM
[EUR] European bonds are steady so far today, with the 10yr German yield holding so far at 2.00% and the 10yr Italian BTP/Bund spread a little further away from the 400bps mark it approached yesterday. Please see below for today's European bond strategy.
1/25/2012 8:38:47 AM
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