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[USD] Recap: Preliminary 2Q16 GDP Up +1.1%
[USD] Recap: The preliminary 2Q16 GDP reading increased +1.1% (advance: +1.2%), versus the revised +0.8% reading seen in 1Q16 (prev. +1.1%), well below market expectations for a +1.2% result. Personal consumption increased +4.4%, versus the +1.6% reading seen in 1Q16. Core PCE increased +1.8%, following the +2.1% increase seen in 1Q16. Residential investment decreased -7.7% in 2Q16, versus the +7.8% increase seen in 1Q16. Exports increased +1.2% in 2Q16, alongside a +0.3% increase from imports. According to the release, downward pressure from private inventories contributed -1.26% to the headline estimate, versus -0.41% seen in 1Q16. IDEA: alongside the weaker headline result, this report clearly reflects the mixed tone of data seen throughout the quarter. Given the magnitude of the inventories decline seen in the advance release, we see this potentially signaling positive momentum on this front in 2H16.
8/26/2016 12:39:18 PM
[USD] US Preview: Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment
[USD] The University of Michigan final estimate of consumer sentiment for August will be released Friday, 26 August at 10:00EDT (14:00GMT). The preliminary August estimate of consumer sentiment increased to 90.4, versus the final 90.0 reading seen in July. The near-term prospects for consumer sentiment remain a virtual wild card though improved conditions seen in recent weeks should provide some support for confidence. Accordingly, anticipating maintained support in the final release, we expect the headline measure will increase modestly to around 91.0.
8/26/2016 12:17:33 PM
[USD] US Preview: Gross Domestic Product
[USD] The preliminary 2Q16 Commerce Department GDP release is on Friday, 26 August at 08:30EDT (12:30GMT). Despite the overall slowdown in activity following the weaker performance seen to finish off 2015, we expect to see slightly greater momentum registered for 2Q16 leading to an overall GDP increase of +1.2%, versus the +0.8% increase seen in 1Q16. Alongside stronger support from personal consumption, the real impetus for greater performance in 2Q16 stems from better support from services, alongside better performance from net exports. On balance, there is likely to be some lingering sluggishness in the US economy as the consumer remains somewhat constrained, gradually abating as employment conditions and business activity improve. Nevertheless, we expect to see modest gains in 2Q16, yielding an overall increase of +1.2% in the preliminary release.
8/26/2016 12:16:16 PM
[THB] Watching the data next week
[THB] There are several key releases in the week ahead starting with July manufacturing production due from Monday onwards and we think that production contracted by 0.4% y/y, in line with consensus, after it expanded by 0.8% y/y in June.
8/26/2016 11:25:06 AM
IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service
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- Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.
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