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[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates
[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates.
2/27/2015 9:04:42 PM
[MKT] European & N.American News & Rumors: 27/2/15
[MKT] European & N.American News & Rumors: 27/2/15 - please see below
2/27/2015 7:41:02 PM
[USD] US Preview: ISM Manufacturing
[USD] The February Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report will be released on Monday, 2 March at 10:00EST (15:00GMT). We expect the headline measure will push modestly lower to 53.0 in February, decreasing from the 53.5 reading seen in January. The manufacturing sector saw consistently weak results throughout the earlier stages of the recovery, gradually becoming undone over the course of 2013. Maintaining some of the dampness seen around year-end, the headline measures for both Empire manufacturing and the Philadelphia Fed showed modestly weaker results in February (though both remained largely supportive). Accordingly, we anticipate maintained pressure to be seen in broader manufacturing data, contributing to only a slight decrease to around 53.0 in the ISM manufacturing measure for February, with some risk to the downside.
2/27/2015 4:54:23 PM
[GBP] The week ahead in the UK
[GBP] The key event in the UK is the meeting of the BoE MPC on Weds/Thurs, which we expect will culminate in the decision to keep monetary policy unchanged. The tenor of the meeting minutes, due for release in a fortnight, however, could see a slightly more hawkish hue, as the members try to drive home the central view that the next move in the Bank Rate is likely to be up. In terms of the economic data releases, the Feb sectoral PMIs are due, and are expected to show a pick-up in the pace of activity in all spheres.
2/27/2015 4:36:05 PM
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The new FX and FI outlook for Q3 is now available. Key themes including
a further rerating of GBP in the coming months, as interest rate spreads cause
a further upleg. USD should be choppy on the majors, though into 2015 we still
forecast a major rerating. |
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Q3 2014 FX/FI Webinar
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IDEAglobal has published the 2014 Q2 FX Outlook|
USD bulls: IDEAglobal would argue that the change in the Fed balance sheet is more important for the USD than the outstanding size of the Fed balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that when the balance sheet expansion ebbed in 2011, the USD gained ground. This could be a function of Fed flows partially seeping abroad, but also that slower new flows reduce the increase in global risk taking. As the Fed tapers its bond purchases through 2014, we would expect this factor to gain momentum and help the USD rise....
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