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[USD] US Preview: Consumer Confidence

[USD] The January Conference Board consumer confidence report will be released on Tuesday at 10:00EST (15:00GMT). We expect the headline measure will increase to around 129.0 in January, versus the 126.5 reading that occurred in December. Alongside broader expectations for maintained gains moving forward, we expect an increase will be seen in December, remaining well with historically high territory.
1/28/2020 12:54:06 PM

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[USD] US Preview: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

[USD] The November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite home price index will be released on Tuesday at 09:00EST (14:00GMT). Alongside expectations for further gains in the coming quarters, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index will show relatively maintained support in November on a m/m basis. Accordingly, this is likely to yield some improvement on the composite-20 measure on a y/y basis, around 2.45% in November.
1/28/2020 12:53:39 PM

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[USD] US Preview: Durable Goods Orders

[USD] The December US Commerce Department durable goods orders report will be released on Tuesday at 08:30EST (13:30GMT). We expect an increase in the overall measure of +1.0% m/m in December, versus the -2.1% m/m reading that occurred in November. This should come alongside an ex-transportation increase of +0.5% m/m in December, versus the -0.1% m/m reading that occurred in November. On balance, the economy continues to grow as we move into 2020 and broader improvement in purchasing activity should be reflected in durable goods orders data in the coming months. Accordingly, anticipating a further increase from the gains seen in recent months, we expect an increase in December, driven largely by an increase in civilian aircraft.
1/28/2020 12:53:09 PM

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[MXN] Activity is weak, surprise retail sales rebound

[MXN] The currency has weakened this week as the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has led to risk aversion. But we now see the MXN as fairly valued around the middle of our multi-week USD/MXN 18.70-19.20 range after a bout of strengthening recently, the short end of the bond market particularly popular with foreign investors taking advantage of the currency's attractive carry. While the MXN will continue to be supported by significant carry positioning, we still see little potential for marked appreciation as the economy remains weak with activity unlikely to pick up much. Yesterday's stronger than expected official retail sales release for November did not change this view with its reading of +1.7% m/m s-adj, +2.1% y/y (the consensus was looking for -0.1% m/m s-adj, +0.4% y/y), helped by the spread of 'Black Friday' discounted shopping after -2.3% m/m s-adj, +0.4% y/y in October.
1/28/2020 11:43:21 AM

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IDEAglobal clients have been asking if we could make some revisions to the FX service on Thomson Reuters (IDEAFX). In response we have added a number of benefits for you:
  • Streamlined product structure for ease of use.
  • Reordered technical pages to allow users to more quickly review our technical calls on major FX pairs.
  • Daily CNH analysis (IDEAFX70) in light of the surge in FX volume seen in the offshore market over recent quarters.

Download the IDEAFX product guide here.


IDEAglobal products on Bloomberg
IDEAglobal products can now be accessed on Bloomberg in two ways:
  1. NH IDE. This will pull up all of IDEAglobal’s research in a newswire format, from which you can scroll down and click onto the analysis or strategy piece of interest. Additionally, based on your subscription you will also have access to IDEAglobal research within relevant Bloomberg news feeds.
  2. IDGL. This provides a menu for IDEAglobal’s products, arranged by their key sections: FastTrack, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, and Strategy. This then allows the user to drill down to specific articles on the markets covered by IDEAglobal. (See example here.)

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