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[ASA] Asian News and Rumours - 13/12
[ASA] Asian News and Rumours from Friday ...
12/13/2013 3:04:51 AM
[INT] US Treasury Strategy
[INT] As soon as the Q3 GDP was revised up to 3.6%, which was dramatically above the initial upside surprise for the quarter, the media was full of forecasts for a 1% Q4, which we had felt was too low. Now, with a 0.3% real PCE for October, the upside surprise to November retail sales, the upside surprise to business inventories in October at 0.7%, the Street is starting to push up previous Q4 estimates by about 0.5%, with some now as high as 2.2%, closer to our 2% estimate. Much still needs to be revealed before refining Q4 estimates, but the period is off to a decent start and does provide more ammunition for those at the Fed that would like to get the tapering started earlier than March. If Congress passes the bipartisan budget deal, that could be an added support for early tapering. This is not to say doves such as Evans, Yellen and Dudley will agree, they can point to the still low inflation readings (although inflation is a lagging indicator and should gradually pick up with improved demand) but it does have the market on guard and for good reason. Just as soon as the long bond reopening is out of the way, the market has to start readying for the supply next week of 2yrs, 5yrs and 7yrs (along with a 5yr TIPs reopening). For the shorter coupons, where the market is quite confident of a long period of near zero Fed Funds based on many Fed assurances, it is Interesting to note that that Stanley Fischer, the apparent nominee to replace Yellen as Fed Vice Chair, has expressed discomfort with longer term guidance since the Fed just cannot really know what they are going to do on that time frame. While Fischer is suspect, with his one size fits all austerity approach for vulnerable countries while at the IMF, he does have a strong point here on guidance. On Friday, we expect Nov. PPI will fall 0.1%, and 0.1% at the core level. Technically, now in the March contract, strength should be counter-trend with 12418 hindering the upside ahead of 12427/12501. Below 12406 can now slide to 12324/12319 then aim at 12300 and below. Above 12501, however, can suggest a surprise reprieve.
12/13/2013 2:27:04 AM
[MKT] European & N.American News & Rumors: 12/12/13
[MKT] European & N.American News & Rumors: 12/12/13 - please see below
12/12/2013 8:16:08 PM
[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates
[USD] DJIA/S&P 500 Index Technical Updates.
12/12/2013 8:10:31 PM
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