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... from the IDEApro Suite

[MKT] European summary updated 01/09/14

[MKT] European summary updated 01/09/14
9/1/2014 11:04:51 AM

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[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe

[INT] News & Rumours from Asia/Europe - please see below.
9/1/2014 10:50:50 AM

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[EUR] Aug manufacturing sector PMI revised down a tad

[EUR] Eurozone Aug final manufacturing sector PMI is revised down slightly, to 50.7 from a flash print of 50.8, taking it further below its 51.8 final reading in Jul. The final reading of the manufacturing output sub-index is however revised up a smidgen, to 51.0, from a flash print of 50.9, but is still down on 52.7 in Jul and is at its lowest reading in 13 months. Heroically assuming no revisions to the Aug flash services sector PMI then (initially recorded at 53.5), the Aug composite PMI will probably be left unchanged at its preliminary reading of 52.8, which itself was down from 53.8 in Jul. Limited direct market impact is seen, with players more concerned about the implications of escalating military tensions in eastern Ukraine and indeed the n/t outlook for ECB monetary policy.
9/1/2014 10:15:37 AM

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[GBP] Manufacturing activity slows more sharply

[GBP] The pace of UK manufacturing sector activity slows precipitously in Aug, with the headline PMI sliding sharply to 52.5 from a downwardly revised 54.8 in Jul (prev 55.4). The latest print, combined with the downward revision to July's reading are unequivocally bearish for GBP, especially when one considers that the PMI is hurtling down towards its l-r average of 51.5. This is made worse by the sharp dip in the new orders sub-index, to 52.9 from 56.8 in Jul, as this suggests that that outlook for activity and output in the s/t is not so favourable. This should add to expectations that the BoE interest rate normalisation process probably won't begin until Q1 2015.
9/1/2014 9:43:19 AM

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Visit the I.D.E.A. TimeMachine for more IDEA Analysis

 


The new FX and FI outlook for Q3 is now available. Key themes including a further rerating of GBP in the coming months, as interest rate spreads cause a further upleg. USD should be choppy on the majors, though into 2015 we still forecast a major rerating.

Please click on the link to watch the webinar that comes with the report: Q3 2014 FX/FI Webinar

Please email administrator@ideaglobal.com for a copy.

IDEAglobal TV, Videos & Media

US equity correction risk Q1 2015 — CNBC
ECB easing hopes overdiscounted — Reuters Insider
Top for GBP
US equity risks later in 2014 — CNBC
Easy ECB — Reuters Insider
USD Bullishness
Pound tightening tantrum later in 2014 — Bloomberg TV
USD medium-term bulls — Reuters Insider
EUR/JPY to 136
How to Play GBP
More ECB easing — Reuters Insider
Expect USD strength in 2014 — Bloomberg TV
IDEAglobal 2014 Currency Preview
The Yen's Correction
USDJPY to Y110 — Reuters Insider
USDJPY best FX trade — Bloomberg
US 10yr yields to hit 3% — CNBC
Equities into 2014 — CNBC
Tapering isn't tightening, OK? — Reuters Insider
ECB Easing
Risk rally in November — Reuters Insider
Europe is not fixed — CNBC
1.40 EUR/USD
What forward guidance works best — CNBC

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IDEAglobal has published the 2014 Q2 FX Outlook

USD bulls: IDEAglobal would argue that the change in the Fed balance sheet is more important for the USD than the outstanding size of the Fed balance sheet. Chart 1 shows that when the balance sheet expansion ebbed in 2011, the USD gained ground. This could be a function of Fed flows partially seeping abroad, but also that slower new flows reduce the increase in global risk taking. As the Fed tapers its bond purchases through 2014, we would expect this factor to gain momentum and help the USD rise....
For the full quarterly FX report please e-mail administrator@ideaglobal.com

IDEAglobal launches an improved and enhanced version of Global Rates portfolio on Reuters

IDEAcarbon launches worlds first carbon credit ratings service

IDEAglobal Tops 1st Quarter Currency Survey

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IDEAglobal & Reuters Seminar in Singapore

IDEA and Policymakers

Professor Lord Desai has joined the IDEAglobal Advisory Board

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