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... from IDEApro Suite

[USD] U.S. Bond Strategy for August 14

 

. On balance, little is entirely expected with respect to inflation in the near-term (both m/m and y/y) as idiosyncratic factors continue clouding the picture. However, continued dampness allows full focus to now shift towards the likely start of balance sheet reduction in September. Given the amount of time between now and a likely next opportunity to resume raising rates (presumably in December), we are likely to see a more complete picture of where the inflation outlook stands. In the meantime, markets now look ahead to a greater flow of data in the week ahead, highlighted by Empire manufacturing, retail sales, housing starts/building permits, Philadelphia Fed and July FOMC minutes releases.
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